Dan Walters: California Democrats hope for surge of young voters

THERE definitely has been a big surge in California voter registration in recent days - largely young and Democratic - fueled by the party's pre-election drives and a new online registration system.

The Secretary of State's Office reported that more than 18 million Californians are on the rolls to vote in the Nov. 6 election. That total is a record high and up sharply from 17.3 million in the 2008 presidential election and the 17.2 million counted in early September.

The question that political oddsmakers are asking is whether the registration surge will translate into a relatively high voter turnout, something like the 79.4 percent recorded in 2008.

A high turnout like that would help Democrats win several close congressional and legislative races and Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown to win on Proposition 30, his hotly contested sales and income tax increase.

The state's three major polls have pegged Prop. 30's support at under 50 percent in the last couple of weeks, down markedly from surveys earlier in the fall. But they also indicate that Prop. 30's biggest supporters are young voters, a subcategory that usually has a low propensity for actually casting ballots.

Therefore, Prop. 30's supporters are hoping that the surge of new young registrants will translate into a surge of new young voters who will overcome the gap between what the polls say and what they need to win - 50 percent plus one.

They take heart from the

Field Poll released Thursday, which not only confirmed the measure's popularity among under-30 voters (61 percent) but found a higher level of support generally during the latter stage of its survey.

That, they hope, indicates that Field, which could not test sentiment among the newest batch of registrants, may have undercounted young, pro-Prop. 30 voters.

Scott Lay, a California community college lobbyist and political blogger, contended in a Twitter post Thursday, following release of the Field Poll, that "if voter turnout like '96, Prop. 30 fails w/ 48.7% yes; like 2004 = passes w/51.4%, like 2008 = passes w/ 50.9%."

California voter turnout in the 1996 presidential election, when Bill Clinton was coasting to a second presidential term, was just 65.5 percent. It rose to 79.4 percent in 2008, when Barack Obama was winning California handily.

There's no presidential contest in California this year. Obama is a surefire winner, as is U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, so the natural drivers of voter turnout are missing, and it's unlikely to hit the 2008 mark.

But it will almost certainly be higher than 1996 - and how much higher will be the major factor in making Prop. 30 a loser or a come-from-behind winner.

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Dan Walters is columnist for The Sacramento Bee. Readers may contact him via e-mail at dwalters@sacbee.com.

Source: http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_21928721/dan-walters-california-democrats-hope-surge-young-voters?source=rss

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